Crypto Q1 2022 Predictions Recap

Following the next meta(s).

A few months ago, I wrote my 10 crypto 2022 predictions.

This update post will be assessing how those predictions are going so far.

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1. Decentralized Stables Capture 50% Market Share

• We're getting there.

• Market share is up with $UST and $USDN leading the way.

• With $USN on $NEAR coming soon, expect this to change significantly in the next quarter.

  

  

2. $ETH Underperforms Despite Layer 2 Success

• Still ongoing.

• The merge is delayed & no significant L2 token launches have happened (yet).

• Thus far ETH is holding well against alt L1s.

  

3. One Top US-Based Crypto Project Forced to Relocate

• No notable news yet, the US-based crypto darlings of silicon valleys $UNI, $DYDX, etc. are predominantly still in the US.

• That said, no extremely negative regulatory piece has been finalized by the US.

4. Emerging Markets VC Enter

• Those who reside in EMs, know that this is happening as we speak.

• Although is not happening as fast as we think due to:

  • capital controls

  • can't directly hold tokens

  • lack of "local edge" as being a successful crypto fund = competing globally

    

5. Tokenomics Rework Is a Dominant Theme

• veXYZ model is being adopted rapidly but there hasn't been any new concept.

• There are 3 types of tokenomics right now:

  • dual token gamification $GMT $GST $AXS $SLP

  • inflationary defi farm tokens on alt L1s

  • L1/L2 tokens

6. A Large Entity Joins the Curve Wars and a Winner Is Determined

• boom. this ties back to prediction no. 1 about decentralized stables

  Do Kwon 🌕 @stablekwon

  1/ Introducing the 4pool - between @fraxfinance, TFL and @redactedcartel we pretty much own all the cvx UST-FRAX-USDC-USDT Curve wars are over, all emissions are going to the 4pool

  

  zon @ItsAlwaysZonny

  introducing the 4pool: @terra_money 🤝 @fraxfinance & a kickass partnership with the flappers: @terra_money 🤝 @redactedcartel https://t.co/CgDDvRUwGp

7. GameFi Is the Worst Performing Sector

• no explanation is necessary.

• $JEWEL might be the only slight exception, but even that's because it's basically DeFi-first, game second.

  

8. $ETH Flips $BTC Post Merge

• Hasn't happened yet.

• Let's wait for the merge.

• Please don't brigade me $BTC maxis.

9. Privacy Coins Continue to Suffer

• This doesn't mean that some sort of privacy feature can integrate with DeFi.

• But it will be a long and arduous battle regardless.

• @hosseeb wrote a great piece about this.

10. NFT Branding Gets Worse

If you interact with young Millenials & Gen-Z outside of the CT bubble, this is self-explanatory and is continuously happening.

Marco Manoppo @ManoppoMarco

@YesTheory getting bombarded by NFT haters show how negative the branding has become for NFTs (and perhaps anything crypto) amongst young Millenials & Gen-Z consumers.

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~7 months left in the year but it seems like we haven't identified the "big trend" of the year.

• DeFi 2020

• NFT 2021

• Maybe decentralized stable yield in 2022?

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